College Football Rundown — Week 12 (2025)

Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 12 delivered upsets, defensive slugfests, and a tightening playoff picture as we head toward the final stretch.
Indiana’s last-minute comeback, Oregon’s escape in Iowa City, and Alabama’s defensive chokehold on LSU headlined a week that reshaped several betting angles.
Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.
Find us at collegefootballrundown.com • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.

Hosts: Kyle Wahl with special guest Michael Storey Theme: “Weather, Matchups, and Margin — November Football Arrives”

Week 11 Rewind — What Mattered for Bettors

Indiana 27 vs Penn State 24

Indiana put up 385 total yards, winning the turnover battle +1 and converting the game-winning TD drive in the final two minutes.
Penn State finished just 3-for-11 on third down and couldn’t hold a late four-point lead.
Indiana moves to 10–0 and enters Week 12 as a heavy home favorite.

Oregon 18 @ Iowa 16

Oregon hit the winning field goal with :03 left in a low-possession game.
Oregon averaged just above 5.0 yards/play; Iowa around 4.3, continuing Iowa’s elite defensive trend but offensive frustration.
Oregon stays in top-10 contention heading into Week 12.

Texas Tech 29 vs BYU 7

BYU entered 8–0 and was held to under 300 yards in their first true stumble of the season.
Texas Tech’s defense is now allowing roughly 280 yards per game, one of the top marks nationally.
The Red Raiders control the Big 12 race heading into UCF.

California 29 @ Louisville 26 (OT)

Cal earned its first ranked win of the year behind 320+ passing yards and no turnovers.
Louisville’s playoff positioning took a major hit, dropping them toward the back of the Top 20.
The ACC race has tightened as a result.

Alabama 20 vs LSU 9

Alabama held LSU to about 230 yards and zero touchdowns, including just 75 rushing yards.
LSU scored three points in each quarter, unable to get vertical shots downfield.
Alabama’s defense continues to peak at the right time with Oklahoma next up.

New College Football Playoff Rankings — Week 12

1. Ohio State (9–0)
2. Indiana (10–0)
3. Texas A&M (9–0)
4. Alabama (8–1)
5. Georgia (8–1)
6. Texas Tech (9–1)
7. Ole Miss (9–1)
8. Oregon (8–1)
9. Notre Dame (7–2)
10. Texas (7–2)
11. Oklahoma (7–2)
12. BYU (8–1)
13–25: Utah, Vanderbilt, Miami, Georgia Tech, USC, Michigan, Virginia, Louisville, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, South Florida, Cincinnati.

Takeaway: Week 12 sets up two de facto playoff elimination games: Texas at Georgia and Oklahoma at Alabama.

Games of the Show — Week 12 Deep Dive

#11 Texas at #5 Georgia

Sat 6:30 PM CT (ABC) • Line Georgia –6.5 | Total 48.5
- Texas expects WR Ryan Wingo and DB Michael Taaffe to be available.
- Georgia loses DL Jordan Hall for the season.
- Texas red-zone scoring sits in the low 80% range, facing a Georgia defense that usually forces field goals.
- The matchup likely swings on interior run game and red-zone finishing.

#12 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama

Sat 2:30 PM CT (ABC) • Line Alabama –6.5 | Total 45.5
- Oklahoma’s pass rush ranks top-5 nationally in sack rate.
- Alabama averages about 6 yards/play, leaning on steady efficiency rather than explosives.
- Turnovers and explosive plays will probably decide this one.

UCLA at #1 Ohio State

Sat 6:30 PM CT (NBC) • Line Ohio State –31.5 | Total 48.5
- Ohio State expects multiple offensive linemen back.
- Buckeyes own the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed (~215–220 per game).
- UCLA’s front seven is thin; OSU should control early downs and tempo.

#10 Notre Dame at #24 Pittsburgh

Sat 11:00 AM CT (ABC) • Line Notre Dame –11.5 | Total 55.5
- Notre Dame’s offense averages 7.4 yards/play, second-best nationally.
- Several Notre Dame linemen remain out; WR Jaden Greathouse is questionable.
- Pitt has increased tempo lately, creating shootout potential if weather holds.

#20 Iowa at #19 USC

Sat 2:30 PM CT (BTN) • Line USC –6.5 | Total 49.5
- USC averages ~500 yards/game, 7.5 yards/play, and over 50% on third downs.
- Iowa allows ~260 yards/game and 4.2 yards/play, among the nation’s best.
- Tempo contrast defines the matchup: USC wants 80 snaps, Iowa wants 55.

Storey Time — Weather, Wind, and the Numbers

Michael Storey broke down how weather shapes spreads and totals, especially in November.
- Wind is the biggest driver of totals movement; 15–18 mph or more usually pushes totals down 2–4 points.
- Cold, dry conditions affect passing velocity but less dramatically than wind.
- Rain reduces efficiency but can increase busted plays and scoring if tackling suffers.

Quick Hitters

Texas Tech vs UCF: Tech defense allowing under 280 yards/game; UCF inconsistent on the ground.
Tennessee vs New Mexico State: Tennessee favored by 40+; depth rotation expected.
Michigan at Northwestern (Wrigley Field): Odd sightlines often reduce explosive plays.
Wisconsin at Indiana: Indiana allowing under 300 yards/game; Wisconsin offense still bottom-third in efficiency.
Florida at Ole Miss: Ole Miss tempo vs a Florida defense vulnerable to explosive runs.

Rundown Pick 'Em

Kyle, Storey, and Harlow each offered one pick against the spread or total this week.
Full results posted in the Discord.

Housekeeping

Episode Release: Thu 11/13 • 5:00 AM CT
Duration: 36:35
File Size: 29.8 MB
Audio File: 157-episode-132-week-12-college-football-2025.mp3
Website: collegefootballrundown.com
X/Twitter: @WWCFB
Instagram: @college_football_rundown
Contact: wahl@collegefootballrundown.com

Episode 132 - Week 12 College Football 2025