College Football Rundown — Week 11 (2025)
Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 11 has arrived, and the playoff race is heating up.
Upsets, overtime thrillers, and the season's first CFP Rankings made Week 10 one of the most consequential weekends yet.
Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.
Find us at collegefootballrundown.com • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.
Hosts: Kyle Wahl with special guests Michael Storey and Josh Harlow
Theme: “Crunch Time — The Rankings Are Here”
Week 10 Rewind — What Mattered for Bettors
SMU 26 @ #18 Miami 20 (OT)
- Miami outgained SMU 433–388 but committed 12 penalties for 96 yards and lost 2 turnovers.
- SMU QB Kevin Jennings threw for 365 yards, including several deep completions that flipped field position.
- Miami closed around –11.5 and failed to cover; the Mustangs cashed +350 to +400 moneylines.
- Miami's title odds drifted from roughly +2000 to +6000 on most boards following the loss.
#11 Texas 34 vs #16 Vanderbilt 31
- Texas built a 24-point lead behind Arch Manning (328 yds, 3 TD) before surviving Vandy's comeback attempt.
- The Longhorns covered –3.5, but only narrowly. Their offense produced three completions of 40+ yards — its most vertical showing since Week 3.
#1 Ohio State 38 @ Penn State 14
- Julian Sayin: 20-for-23, 316 yards, 4 TD.
- Buckeyes scored on three of their first four second-half drives, finishing with 7.2 yards per play.
- Ohio State remains CFP #1, ranking top-5 nationally in both points per drive (3.54) and defensive success rate.
Duke 46 @ Clemson 45
- Clemson posted 560 total yards and held the ball for nearly 9 more minutes but lost on a late 94-yard drive and two-point conversion.
- Duke's 100-yard kick return and a +1 turnover margin made the difference in a statistical upset.
#6 Florida State 42 vs Wake Forest 7
- Seminoles scored six touchdowns over the final three quarters.
- Wake Forest crossed midfield only twice before late garbage time.
- FSU –12.5 tickets cashed easily, and the Noles' balanced offense looked sharp heading into Week 11.
Trend Snapshot:
- Double-digit favorites (Miami, Texas) were shaky; volatility increasing in live markets.
- Underdogs with efficient QB play (Duke, SMU) continue to outperform.
- #1 Ohio State and #5 Georgia maintain the nation's most consistent cover profiles.
Review — First College Football Playoff Rankings (Nov 4)
- Top 4: #1 Ohio State (8–0), #2 Indiana (9–0), #3 Texas A&M (8–0), #4 Alabama (7–1)
- Next Tier: #5 Georgia (7–1), #6 Ole Miss (8–1), #7 BYU (8–0), #8 Texas Tech (8–1), #9 Oregon (7–1), #10 Notre Dame (6–2)
- Risers: #15 Louisville and #18 Miami entered the Top 20, while SMU received its first committee votes.
- Public money quickly followed the rankings — several ranked road favorites saw spreads move 1–2 points in their direction midweek.
Games of the Show — Week 11 Deep Dive
#7 LSU at #4 Alabama — Sat 6:30 PM CT (ABC) • Line –10.5 | Total 49.5
- Alabama DB Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. suspended; LSU LB Whit Weeks listed doubtful (ankle).
- Alabama defense totals 15 sacks on the season; QB Ty Simpson 2,184 yds, 18 TD.
- LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier: 1,806 yds, 12 TD, 65.9% completion rate.
- Angle: Alabama's pressure rate is trending up; LSU's deep game thrives when protected — a key live-bet pivot.
#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa — Sat 2:30 PM CT (CBS) • Line –6.5 | Total 40.5
- Iowa TE Addison Ostrenga out for the year; offense limited to 946 passing yards from QB Mark Gronowski.
- Oregon QB Dante Moore: 1,772 yds, 14 TD; RB Noah Whittington: 433 yds.
- Angle: Oregon's pace vs Iowa's field-position defense; wind forecast may influence late totals movement.
#6 Florida State at Clemson — Sat 6:00 PM CT (ACCN) • Line –2.5 Clemson | Total 56.5
- FSU off 42–7 blowout with 6.9 yards per play; Clemson off 45–46 heartbreaker despite 560 yards of offense.
- WR Jayvan Boggs remains questionable for the Seminoles.
- Angle: Explosives and turnovers likely decide outcome; Clemson must create defensive negatives to hold home-field.
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State — Sat 11:00 AM CT (ESPN) • Line –7.5 | Total 57.5
- Georgia edged Florida 24–20 last week; CFP playoff probability ~85%.
- WR Colbie Young out, shifting usage to tight ends.
- Angle: Discipline vs chaos — UGA's efficiency tested by Starkville's crowd and early kick.
#1 Ohio State at Purdue — Sat 12:00 PM CT (BTN) • Line –29.5 | Total 48.5
- Purdue RB Devin Mockobee out for the season.
- OSU enters with nation's top scoring margin (+25.9 ppg).
- Angle: Buckeyes likely control tempo early; backdoor potential late if backups rotate in.
Storey Time — In-Game Betting
Michael Storey's segment this week centered on in-game (live) betting — where value comes from timing, not prediction.
He discussed how understanding tempo, substitution patterns, and drive efficiency can create real-time edges, and also warned about traps such as anchoring bias and overreacting to momentum.
In short: know what your live number should be, not just what the screen shows.
Quick Hitters
- #23 Washington at Wisconsin (3:30 PM BTN): Washington –11.5 / 45.5; Badgers banged up at RB/OL; weather could hold total under.
- Kansas at Arizona (2:30 PM ESPN2): Arizona –4.5 / 56.5; both QBs rank top-25 in on-schedule rate since Week 7.
- Nebraska at UCLA (8:00 PM FOX): UCLA –2.5 / 43.5; defensive battle with turnovers dictating result.
- #3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri (2:30 PM ABC): A&M –6.5 / 48.5; ranking bump inflates favorite pricing.
- #18 Miami vs Syracuse (2:30 PM ESPN): Miami –28.5; bounce-back narrative in play after OT loss.
- Air Force at San José State (5:00 PM FS1): SJSU –5.5 / 66.5; total inflated for option tempo mismatch.
- UNLV at Colorado State (8:30 PM FS1): UNLV –4.5 / 61.5; late-night MWC fireworks expected.
- Florida at Kentucky (6:30 PM SECN): Florida –3.5 / 43.5; physical matchup where field position matters.
Rundown Pick 'Em
Wahl, Storey, and Harlow each locked in one spread or total from the Week 11 board — results and bragging rights tracked weekly inside the Discord.
Housekeeping
Episode Release: Thu 11/06 • 5:00 AM CT
Duration: 45:14 • File Size: 34.6 MB
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Questions or media: wahl@collegefootballrundown.com