College Football Rundown — Week 10 (2025)
Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 10 is here, and November football has officially arrived.
Playoff paths are tightening, betting lines are sharpening, and several ranked showdowns headline one of the most data-rich slates of the season.
Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.
Find us at collegefootballrundown.com • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.
Host: Wahl and Storey breaks down Week 9’s market reactions and delivers a stat-driven look at the biggest games on the Week 10 board.
Week 9 Rewind — What Mattered for Bettors
- Nine ranked teams lost in Week 9, the most this season, creating sharp line adjustments heading into Week 10.
- #7 Ole Miss 34 @ #13 Oklahoma 26: Rebels earn their biggest road win in years; Trinidad Chambliss threw for 283 yards and 3 TDs, while the defense limited OU to just 4.8 yards per play.
- #9 Vanderbilt 31 vs LSU 24: Commodores reached their first Top-10 ranking since 1947 after improving to 7-1; QB Diego Pavia added two rushing TDs and Vandy’s defense produced three sacks and a goal-line stop.
- #1 Ohio State 38 vs Wisconsin 0: Buckeyes pitched another shutout — their third of the season — holding Wisconsin to 149 total yards. QB Julian Sayin hit 19 of 23 passes for 262 yards and 3 TDs, pushing OSU to 7-0.
- Big Ten dominance continues: Ohio State and Indiana (both 7-0) remain unbeaten, stabilizing markets at the top.
- Betting takeaway: Underdogs in “ranked vs unranked” spots are seeing compressed early-week lines. Books have started shading heavily toward defensive metrics, making live totals an increasingly valuable angle.
Storey Time — Overreaction & Metrics
Michael Storey’s segment this week dives into overreaction in betting lines — how a single big win can distort market perception.
He breaks down the difference between descriptive metrics (what just happened) and predictive metrics (what’s likely to happen next), showing how bettors can exploit the gap.
The lesson: Don’t chase outcomes; chase signals that persist. For example, a team’s yards-per-play differential or drive efficiency is far more predictive than raw final scores or turnovers.
Main Games — Week 10 Spotlight
#1 Ohio State vs Penn State — Sat 11:00 CT (FOX) • OSU −20.5 | O/U 43.5
- Ohio State: Undefeated (7-0), #1 scoring defense (5.9 ppg allowed), 216.9 ypg allowed, +17 turnover margin.
- QB Julian Sayin: ~1,870 yds, 19 TD, 3 INT; offense averaging 431.4 ypg.
- Penn State: Out of the Top 25 after a 3-game skid; offense sputtering under backup QB after Drew Allar’s injury.
- Angle: Buckeyes have covered four straight double-digit spreads; with a total under 44, early scoring tempo determines live entry spots.
#5 Georgia vs Florida — Sat 2:30 CT (ABC) • UGA −7.5 | O/U 50.5
- Georgia: 7-1, fresh off a 43-35 win over Ole Miss; QB Gunner Stockton now at 2,108 yds, 18 TD.
- Florida: 5-3, unranked but averaging 31.2 ppg, leaning on RB Trevor Etienne’s 714 yds, 7 TD.
- Trend: Neutral-site rivalry (Jacksonville) has seen six of last seven decided by ≤10 points.
- Angle: The “–7.5” sits at a key number; Georgia’s defensive front (2.9 sacks/g) must limit explosive plays to cover.
#7 Ole Miss vs South Carolina — Sat 6:00 CT (ESPN) • MISS −12.5 | O/U 54.5
- Ole Miss: 7-1 (4-1 SEC); offense averaging 484 ypg and 36.4 ppg. WR Zakhari Franklin up to 628 yds, 6 TD.
- South Carolina: 3-5, 1-5 SEC, allowing 32 ppg; offense ranks bottom-30 nationally in rushing efficiency.
- Angle: Double-digit spread justified by Rebels’ balanced offense vs Gamecocks’ porous run D. Early tempo likely dictates total movement.
#9 Vanderbilt @ #20 Texas — Sat 11:00 CT (ABC) • TEX −2.5 | O/U 45.5
- Vanderbilt: 7-1, first Top-10 since 1947; offense Top-10 in yards/play (7.0) and points/play (0.615).
- QB Diego Pavia: 1,845 pass yds, 17 TD + 6 rush TD.
- Texas: 6-2, No. 20 AP, but highly penalized (116th in penalty yds/game). QB Arch Manning 2,024 yds, 16 TD, 7 INT.
- Angle: Small number favors home team, but hidden-yardage penalties and Vandy’s efficiency create underdog intrigue.
#17 Cincinnati @ #24 Utah — Sat 9:15 CT (ESPN) • UTAH −8.5 | O/U 55.5
- Cincinnati: 6-2, scoring 38.3 ppg; QB Brendan Sorsby (1,986 yds, 19 TD).
- Utah: 6-2, allowing 15.3 ppg, 36.9 ppg scored at home; 33-5 home record since 2018.
- Angle: Two ranked teams with contrasting profiles — elite home defense vs explosive road offense. Numbers justify Utah favorite but market watching for late Cincy money.
Rundown Pick ’Em
Each host locks in one side or total from the Week 10 board — bragging rights and closing-line value tracked weekly for Rundown Nation.
Housekeeping
Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM (this week’s release: Thu 10/30 • 5:00 AM CT)
Site: collegefootballrundown.com
X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Discord link on site
For inquiries or support: wahl@collegefootballrundown.com