College Football Rundown — Week 8 (2025)
Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 8 cranks up the rivalry heat with playoff positioning and betting psychology front and center.
Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.
Find us at collegefootballrundown.com • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.
Guests: Regular contributor Michael Storey returns alongside host Kyle Wahl for a deep dive into a loaded Week 8 board and a candid discussion on what really separates public vs. sharp betting in today’s market.
Storey Time (this week): Public vs. Sharp Betting — why betting splits form, how perception drives price, and how disciplined bettors can spot value when the crowd and the pros disagree.
Week 7 Rewind — What Mattered for Bettors
- Indiana 30 @ Oregon 20: The Hoosiers stayed unbeaten with a disciplined defensive showing, holding Oregon to just 1 first down in the fourth quarter and producing 6 sacks. The Ducks’ 18-game home streak snapped, vaulting Indiana to No. 3 AP and flipping national futures.
- Texas 23 vs Oklahoma 6 (Dallas): The Longhorns’ defense smothered OU, allowing only 258 total yards and forcing three turnovers. Ryan Niblett’s 75-yard punt-return TD sealed both the win and the cover.
- Alabama 27 @ Missouri 24: QB Ty Simpson converted two crucial 4th-down plays, including the game-winner. The Tide continue to flash clutch efficiency but remain uneven offensively. RB Jam Miller and WR Derek Meadows entered concussion protocol after the game.
- USC 31 vs Michigan 13: The Trojans rolled up 224 rushing yards while Michigan missed 14 tackles; a result that re-framed USC’s physicality heading into South Bend.
- Market ripples: Penn State fired James Franklin on Sunday; Indiana, Texas, and USC all climbed in the latest AP Top 25.
Saturday Spotlights (Main Games)
#11 Tennessee @ #6 Alabama — Sat 6:30 CT (ABC) • ALA −7.5 | O/U 58.5
- Injury watch: RB Jam Miller (Q), WR Derek Meadows (Q) — both in concussion protocol.
- Tactical note: Alabama may lean heavier on RPOs and gap-run concepts if depth stays thin. Tennessee’s front seven averages 8.3 TFLs per game (top-10 nationally); havoc creation is key to keeping this inside one score.
- Angle: If Bama’s ground game controls early downs, look at Tide 1H −4; if UT generates pressure, game total may dip Under 58.5.
#20 USC @ #13 Notre Dame — Sat 6:30 CT (NBC / Peacock) • ND −8.5 | O/U 61.5
- Personnel: ND C Ashton Craig (out for season); USC RB Eli Sanders (out), Waymond Jordan (extended absence).
- Metrics: USC OL has allowed only 4 sacks all season (t-8th FBS), while ND DL ranks middle-third in pressure rate (~6.5% on dropbacks).
- Angle: If winds < 10 mph, USC pass rate ↑ and Over live; if ND pressure disrupts timing inside, expect drive-stall field goals → Under lean.
#5 Ole Miss @ #9 Georgia — Sat 2:30 CT (ABC) • UGA −7.5 | O/U 54.5
- Efficiency battle: Ole Miss RZ TD rate 64.7%; Georgia defensive RZ score rate 66.7% (Top-10 nationally).
- Situational: Georgia 7-for-10 on 4th downs (3 TDs); Rebels seek chunk plays vs a defense that rarely gives them.
- Angle: Inside-the-20 execution determines cover vs push around −7.5.
#23 Utah @ #15 BYU — Sat 7:00 CT (FOX) • UTAH −3.5 | O/U 49.5
- Form: Utah OL allowed just 2 pressures on 15 dropbacks last week; QB Devon Dampier completing 69% since Week 5.
- Defense: BYU RZ defense top-10 (70.6% score rate allowed). Altitude and tempo can drag 2H totals under mid-50s keys.
- Angle: Live 2H Under if early drives trade FGs.
Storey Time — Public vs. Sharp Betting
Michael Storey breaks down how betting markets split between the crowd and the professionals — and how to read those signals.
- Defining the divide: Public money often chases favorites, recency bias, and televised brands. Sharp positions move early and attack mispriced totals or key numbers before books adjust.
- Line movement mechanics: Early-week sharp bets shape openers; weekend public money can push lines 1–2 points off fair value. Watching the timing of moves (not just tickets %) reveals who’s really betting.
- Using it to your advantage: Track games where tickets > 70% but money < 40% — a classic sharp indicator. Discipline means fading emotion, not chasing steam.
- Storey’s takeaway: “If you can separate the why behind a move from the who making it, you start seeing the board like a market, not a scoreboard.”
Quick Hitters
- #1 Ohio State @ Wisconsin (OSU −24.5, 40.5): Badgers off 37-0 home loss to Iowa (first since 1929); 1H unders 5-1 run.
- #8 Oregon @ Rutgers (ORE −17.5, 60.5): Bounce-back spot; Rutgers allowed 538 yds to Washington last week.
- #21 Texas @ Kentucky (TEX −12.5, 42.5): Texas defense 260.5 ypg (Top-10); Kentucky offense 94th in scoring.
- Washington @ Michigan (MICH −6.5, 50.5): UM run D gave up 224 rush yds vs USC; RB Justice Haynes status key.
- #4 Texas A&M @ Arkansas (TA&M −7.5, 61.5): Aggies allowing 12 ppg last three SEC games.
- #10 LSU @ #17 Vanderbilt (VAN −2.5, 48.5): First time since 1947 Vandy favored over LSU.
- #7 Texas Tech @ Arizona State (TTU −9.5, 50.5): QB Behren Morton probable; ASU depth thin.
- #12 Georgia Tech @ Duke (DUKE −1.5, 61.5): Clear weather → Over steam possible toward 63.
- #2 Miami vs Louisville (Fri, MIA −13.5, 51.5): ‘Canes off bye; Louisville pressure rate Top-20.
- #25 Nebraska @ Minnesota (Fri, NEB −8.5, 46.5): Both teams bottom-25 tempo; Under lean.
- #22 Memphis @ UAB (MEM −20.5, 63.5): Tigers on 10-game win streak; UAB allowing 41 ppg.
- #16 Missouri @ Auburn (MIZ −1.5, 43.5): Mizzou off gut-punch loss; Auburn defense stronger at home.
- Penn State @ Iowa (IOWA −2.5, 40.5): Interim bump for PSU vs Iowa ball-control formula.
- Florida State @ Stanford (FSU −17.5, 53.5): FSU cross-country spot; athletic edge massive.
- UNLV @ Boise State (BOIS −11.5, 62.5): Boise home edge; UNLV live backdoor.
- USF vs FAU (USF −21.5, 74.5): USF offense ~43 ppg; Owls can trade explosives.
Rundown Pick ’Em
Each host and guest locks in one side or total from the Week 8 board — short rationale, long bragging rights.
Results and closing-line value tracked weekly for Rundown Nation leaderboards.
Housekeeping
- Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM (this week’s release: Thu 10/16, 5:00 AM CT)
- Site: collegefootballrundown.com
- X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord
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