College Football Rundown — Week 7 (2025)
Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 7 brings ranked showdowns, market swings, and a deeper dive into home-field edge across the country.
Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.
Find us at collegefootballrundown.com • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.
Guests: Regular contributor Michael Storey returns, joined by special guest Josh Harlow, who teases fresh injury news from Georgia’s offense and breaks down his beloved Indiana Hoosiers ahead of their trip to Oregon.
Storey Time (this week): Home Field Advantage — how travel, crowd energy, and homecoming spots influence betting edges.
Week 6 Rewind — What Mattered for Bettors
- UCLA 42, Penn State 37: Bruins converted 10 of 16 third downs and rolled up ~270 rushing yards, flipping pace and possession. PSU’s defense gave up explosive plays on back-to-back weeks.
- Florida 29, Texas 21: Gators’ front generated six sacks and forced three-and-outs on half of Texas’ drives; the Longhorns drop from the Top 25 and lose market steam heading into the Cotton Bowl.
- Miami 28, Florida State 22: Miami jumped 28-3 before coasting; turnover margin +3 and only one sack allowed show why bettors keep buying the ‘Canes.
- Conference themes: Ohio State’s defense continues elite red-zone form; Alabama’s ground D remains inconsistent; and futures markets reshuffled with Miami and Oregon climbing.
Saturday Spotlights (Deep Dive Games)
#1 Ohio State @ #17 Illinois — Sat 11:00 CT (FOX)
- Line guide: OSU ≈ –15 | Total: High 40s – Low 50s
- Matchup: Buckeyes allowing ≈ 5 PPG through six weeks; Illinois averaging 37 PPG but just 3.7 YPC on the ground. If DE Kenyatta Jackson Jr. returns, OSU’s edge rush tilts the matchup.
- Angle: Illini team-total under or OSU –1H if pressure shows early.
#8 Alabama @ #14 Missouri — Sat 11:00 CT (ABC)
- Line guide: Bama ≈ –3 | Total: ~52
- Matchup: Mizzou LT Cayden Green questionable; protection plans may dictate tempo. Alabama top-25 in scoring defense but giving up ~5 YPC in spots.
- Angle: If Green limited → fade Mizzou explosives; if healthy → live-bet Mizzou drives when ahead of sticks.
#7 Indiana @ #3 Oregon — Sat 2:30 CT (CBS)
- Line guide: Oregon ≈ –7.5 | Total: Mid-50s
- Matchup: Both rush attacks top-15 nationally; Indiana top-5 rushing offense, Oregon just outside top-10. Ducks excel on third downs at home.
- Angle: If Indiana keeps 3rd and manageable → under pace; if Oregon controls field position → Ducks cover.
- Josh Harlow note: Watch Indiana’s front rotation fatigue in Autzen noise; his breakdown on how the Hoosiers can stay live ATS is a must-listen.
#6 Oklahoma vs Texas (Cotton Bowl) — Sat 2:30 CT (ABC)
- Line guide: Texas ≈ –2 | Total: Low 40s
- Matchup: OU QB John Mateer (hand) is a game-time call; backup Michael Hawkins threw 3 TD and rushed for one in Week 6. OU defense allowing 3.2 YPP leads FBS.
- Angle: Mateer active → lean OU/Over; if out → Texas ML and Under correlation. Texas penalties (~77 yds/game) could swing field position.
#15 Michigan @ USC — Sat 6:30 CT (NBC)
- Line guide: USC ≈ –2.5 | Total: High 50s
- Matchup: Michigan gets LG Giovanni El-Hadi and TE Hogan Hansen back; USC averaging > 11 YPP passing but pass-protection remains inconsistent.
- Angle: If Michigan wins early-down rush battles, look for UM + pts or live Over; if USC forces passing downs, Trojans cover short numbers.
Storey Time — Home Field Advantage
Michael Storey dives into how home-field edge still matters in modern betting.
- Crowd Impact: Noise and communication disruption can affect false starts and snap timing, adding hidden yards.
- Travel & Body Clock: He broke down how long flights and time-zone crossings shift performance metrics in early kicks.
- Homecoming Factor: Extra motivation and campus buzz sometimes move first-half lines by half a point or more.
- Betting Angles: Identify teams traveling > 1,000 miles or with back-to-back road games as fade spots; consider crowd-driven momentum for live overs.
Rundown Pick ’Em
Each host and guest locks in one side or total from the Week 7 board — short rationale, long bragging rights.
Results and closing-line value get tracked weekly for Rundown Nation leaderboards.
Housekeeping
- Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM (this week’s release: Thu 10/09, 5:00 AM CT)
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