🎙️ College Football Rundown — Week 1 (2025)
Welcome back, Rundown Nation — Week 1 is here! Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM all season.
Find us at collegefootballrundown.com • X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.
Woj’s out for now, but we’re lining up guests throughout the year. Storey is back with Storeytime: Betting School, this week breaking down the Moneyline 101 basics.
🔙 Week 0 Recap — Chaos Arrives Early
- Iowa State 24, Kansas State 21 (Dublin): Cyclones flipped the script as FG dogs, capitalizing on late conversions while K-State stalled. Underdog cover right out of the gate.
- Hawai‘i 27, Stanford 24: A YouTube-trained freshman kicker wins it at the horn. QB Micah Alejado gutted it out on one leg. Hawai‘i covered both sides of the closing line.
- Kansas 31, Fresno State 7: Jalon Daniels tossed 3 TDs as KU comfortably covered -14. Fresno had just 37 rush yds and 3 TOs.
- UNLV 38, Idaho State 31: The Rebels (-21) escaped. Bengals put up 550+ yards but still lost; backers cashed.
- WKU 41, Sam Houston 24: Right on the number. QB Maverick McIvor threw for 400+ yds, 4 TDs.
- FCS Shakeups: Nicholls stunned #5 Incarnate Word 20–6 (as +11). Tarleton blanked Portland State 42–0.
Theme: underdogs landed blows, heavy chalk sweated, and August reminded us nobody’s safe.
🏈 Week 1 Spotlights
Texas vs. Ohio State — Columbus, OH (Noon ET, FOX)
- Storyline: Brand-new QBs (Arch Manning vs. Julian Sayin), elite WRs (Ryan Wingo vs. Jeremiah Smith), and NFL-ready trenches.
- Keys: Texas D-line vs. OSU run game; OSU’s WR depth vs. Texas pass rush.
- Angle: Wide range of outcomes; could be a 21-20 slugfest or a blowout either way.
LSU vs. Clemson — Death Valley (Clemson)
- QB Matchup: Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) vs. Cade Klubnik (Clemson). Both carry Heisman chatter.
- Program Lens: LSU rebuilt via portal (18 new adds). Clemson doubles down on veteran core.
- Keys: LSU OL vs. Clemson’s front (Woods, Parker). Both need TDs, not FGs, in the red zone.
- Angle: Death Valley bragging rights + playoff stakes in Week 1.
Notre Dame vs. Miami — Hard Rock (Sunday Night)
- Miami QB: Carson Beck (Georgia transfer) — big arm, chemistry TBD with young WRs.
- ND QB: CJ Carr (true frosh) — won job late; first career start on the road.
- X-Factor: RB Jeremiah Love — dynamic all over the field.
- Angle: Sunday showcase; who settles in faster, Beck or Carr?
Nebraska vs. Cincinnati — Arrowhead (Thursday Night)
- Nebraska: Dylan Raiola vs. zone coverage (73% completions vs. zone last year).
- Cincinnati: QB Brendan Sorsby + new RBs (Walker, Prior) aiming for 35-min TOP.
- Matchup: Raiola’s passing vs. Cincy’s zone D; who controls tempo?
Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina — Atlanta (Sunday)
- Gamecocks: LaNorris Sellers (dynamic QB) + Rasheen Faison eligibility boost.
- Hokies: Brent Pry under pressure; new OC, DC, 30 transfers, rebuilt OL.
- Angle: Sellers’ dual-threat upside vs. Hokies’ patchwork roster.
🐘 Heavy Favorites to Watch
- Georgia vs. Marshall: Tune-up before SEC gauntlet.
- Penn State vs. Nevada: ~44-pt spread; watch for backdoor cover.
- Alabama vs. Florida State: Tide open as DD favorites (–13.5).
Betting Lens: inflated totals + backdoor covers common in these early “cupcake” games.
📚 Storeytime: Betting School — Moneyline Odds Made Simple
- Minus = favorite: –200 means risk $200 to win $100 (~67%).
- Plus = underdog: +150 means risk $100 to win $150 (~40%).
- Cheat sheet:
- –110 ≈ 52% chance (coin flip line).
- –150 ≈ 60%.
- –200 ≈ 67%.
- +150 ≈ 40%.
- +300 ≈ 25%.
- Takeaway: Minus means favorite, plus means underdog, and the bigger the number, the stronger the confidence gap.
📝 Housekeeping
- Episodes drop Wed night / Thu AM.
- Site: collegefootballrundown.com
- X/Twitter: @WWCFB • Instagram: @college_football_rundown • Join the Discord.
- Hosting update: podcasts now live directly on the site — if issues, email wahl@collegefootballrundown.com.